World biggest problem in swine flu pandemic
EVEN if World Health Organisation declares a pandemic after closely examining the rapidly spreading swine flu throughout the five continents, it does not necessarily mean that the devastating disease is now under control.
In fact, it will create one of the biggest medical problems in world history on where they can get at least 6.5bil – yes, billion, not millions -- doses of vaccine to meet the demands of the global hospitals.
Not even the United States with all its advanced technology, combined with those of other countries, could produce such an amount in time to deal with the disastrous situation.
The best they could expect is a total production of no more than 350mil doses, which would probably take six months before they can be distributed to other countries.
This is the limitation of the current medical technology in any part of the world. It is the greatest impediment which scientists are desperately trying to overcome by using possibly other methods and biotechnologies than chicken and eggs.
Whether they could produce 6.5bil doses in time to address the rapidly growing swine flu is another matter.
The authorities are watching the situation closely in more than 20 countries in four continents around the world.
They need to know by next week how many people are actually infected by swine flu to determine how widespread it is at the moment before declaring a pandemic.
But the figures coming out of Mexico on the death toll is confused to say the least. Latest official figures put it down to between 160 and 176 while a Mexican doctor believes it is more than 200.
The actual figure could make the difference in calculating the more accurate approximate number of victims of the dreadful disease.
Reports from Mexico estimate that more than 2,500 people are currently ill with influenza, but how many are really affected by swine flu has not been confirmed yet.
Part of the problem is that the authorities do not have adequate rapid diagnostic testing systems and are simply taking quick blood test from people to find out if they might have been infected with swine flu in the past.
What is absolutely essential at this point is to find out what is the actual death toll in Mexico, says Laurie Garrett, an American expert in chronic and infectious diseases, global health systems and bioterrorism.
In an interview with ABC 7.30 Report, Garrett, who is also a Pulitzer Prize science author, points out that health authorities are not sure how virulent is the current swine flu because they do not really know the denominator or the ratio of deaths to incidents of the disease in Mexico.
The denominator issue in Mexico is important to assess the fatality rate of 1% or 2% of all victims of swine flu.
As far as the World Health Organisation (WHO) is aware is that, of the thousands of suspected swine flu victims, only 105 cases have been confirmed throughout the world.
It all began in the village of La Gloria in Mexico two months ago when a five-year-old boy suffered swine flu and survived.
The disease spread quickly over the border to the United States, Canada, Britain and various parts of Europe and finally to Asia, Australia and New Zealand.
Until a pandemic is declared, the situation is in Phase 5 alert, which means that human-to-human spread has occurred in at least two countries within the WHO region.
“The worrisome thing is that a lot of the illness and death is in young adults,” Garrett says. “They are in the age group of between 15 and 36 who normally has no trouble with influenza.”
Perhaps, one of the reasons is to do with the behavioural patterns of young adults and teenagers who hang out together in groups at schools, gyms and other places. When someone sneezes, the germs from it could easily spread to others in the group.
The virus is reported to have broken out in 15 states in the US. In Mexico City, about 35,000 public venues have been closed.
The situation is almost similar to the 1981 Spanish flu, known as “one of the world’s great historic scourges”, that killed 100 million people throughout the world.
Young people in Australia have been urged not to congregate in groups in public areas as a precaution against swine flu. The situation has caused almost a panic as householders began hoarding food and masks to avoid going to the shops regularly.
Federal Health Minister Nicola Roxon describes the panic as unnecessary and appeals to Australians not to stockpile food and antiviral drugs in their pantries.
The government has taken every precaution necessary, as advised by health professionals, to stop the disease from getting into Australia. Incoming passengers at all airports are being screened by thermal scanners and have to fill a health declaration card.
Anyone who has a high temperature will be immediately examined by a medical staff member and required to give a nose or throat swap if considered necessary.
A total of 136 people have been tested for swine flu, including those who have travelled to Mexico recently, but there has been no confirmed case. But two Australians, now in London, have been found positive with swine flu after their return from Mexico and a woman is awaiting the result of a test.
Garrett says: “What happens in the next few days will tell us whether what we’re dealing with is a garden variety flu that just happens to have gone through pigs, but is no more likely to cause death and devastation than a normal flu or whether we’re dealing with something that, indeed, is a significant killer flu.”
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